Introduction
When it comes to perceptions of residential crime, such as burglary and knife crime, the general assumption is that bigger, metropolitan areas such as London host a higher concentration of crime in comparison to its surrounding suburbs. However, this is not necessarily the case.
In 2026, several legislative changes addressing street crime were brought into effect, including new criminal offences introduced by the Crime and Policing Act 2026 and the government’s new knife crime guidance.
With the Ministry of Justice committing to a tougher stance on crime, there is renewed focus on making neighbourhoods safer and improving public confidence in the criminal justice system. As the Government introduces measures designed to tackle crime and strengthen public protection, understanding the risks facing local communities is increasingly important.
To give an insight into crime statistics across London and the Home Counties, Lawtons Criminal Defence Solicitors have analysed offence data across 5 crime categories affecting residential areas including burglary, vehicle offences, criminal damage & arson, public order offences and possession of weapons offences.
Key Findings
Our analysis revealed the following key takeaways:
- Burglary and vehicle crime risk in London is over 2x higher than the Home Counties
- The Home Counties exceed London’s average for criminal damage and arson (6.24 vs 6.16) and weapons possession (0.89 vs 0.79).
- Westminster is the worst area overall, with the highest rates for burglary, second highest rates for vehicle offences and the highest rates for public order offences and weapons possession.
- Sussex ranks second of all 40 areas for weapons offences (rate of 1.41 per 1,000 population), beaten only by Westminster – nearly double the London average.
- Kent ranks second of all 40 areas for criminal damage and arson (rate of 8.95 per 1,000).
- Kingston upon Thames saw the sharpest single rise anywhere in the dataset, with weapons possession offences seeing a 57.14% increase year-on-year.
- Both Hampshire (rate of 7.07 per 1,000) and Sussex (rate of 70.5 per 1,000) exceeded London’s average public order offence rate.
London records higher crime rates than the home counties in 3 of 5 categories – but not all
This table gives an overview of the top-level trends across both London and the Home Counties:
| Criminal Offence | London Crime Rate per 1,000 | Home Counties Crime Rate per 1,000 | Highest Crime Rate |
| Burglary | 5.46 | 2.63 | London |
| Vehicle Offences | 9.31 | 4.20 | London |
| Criminal damage and arson | 6.1584 | 6.2441 | Home Counties |
| Public Order Offences | 6.4147 | 5.7485 | London |
| Possession of Weapon Offences | 0.7889 | 0.8879 | Home Counties |
While London leads on property and vehicle crimes and public order offences, the Home Counties lead on weapons possession offences and criminal damage & arson. What these statistics tell us is that this isn’t a one-sided story, there is a two-way split.
18 out of 32 London Boroughs (56.3%) reduced crime in 3 or more categories. The following six boroughs achieved a reduction in 4 out of 5 categories:
- Enfield
- Hammersmith
- Fulham
- Havering
- Lambeth
- Merton
- Waltham Forest
In addition, 7 out of 8 Home Counties achieved reductions in 3 or more categories. Sussex was the only area across both tables to record a year-on-year reduction across all 5 categories, namely a 25.60% drop in vehicle offences and a 13.28% drop in burglaries.
Burglary risk in London is more than double the home counties average (5.46 vs 2.63 per 1000)
When it comes to burglary rates across London and the Home Counties, Westminster is the worst area for burglary rates – as well as being the worst area for crime overall.
Every Home County we analysed falls below the London average of 5.46 per 1,000, with Kent holding the lowest overall risk at 2.41 per 1,000. By contrast, the top 5 areas for burglary are entirely London boroughs.
Across the London boroughs, Westminster hosts the highest rates (13.44), followed by Camden (10.26) and Kensington and Chelsea (8.61).
Across the Home Counties, Hertfordshire hosts the highest burglary rates (3.00), followed by Hampshire (2.81) and Essex (2.41).
The areas with the biggest increases in burglary are Hounslow (London) with an increase of 6.97% and Thames Valley (Home Counties) with an increase of 6.08%.
The areas with the highest drops in burglary rates are Havering (London) with a decrease of 19.41% and Kent (Home Counties) with a decrease of 19.02%. The Home Counties have seen a widespread downward trend, led by Kent (-19.02%), Bedfordshire (-15.10%) and Sussex (-13.28%).
Vehicle offences peak in wealthy boroughs – Kensington and Chelsea (15.87) and Westminster (15.82) top the table
Our analysis showed that vehicle offences have the sharpest contrast of all five crime categories between London and the Home Counties.
The worst London boroughs (per 1,000) are Kensington and Chelsea (15.78), followed by Westminster (15.82) and Haringey (12.35). Whereas the worst Home Counties (per 1000) are Bedfordshire (5.81), followed by Essex (5.15) and Hertfordshire (4.78).
Kensington and Chelsea is the leading area in London for vehicle offences, while Sussex has the lowest Home Counties vehicle offence rate at 2.86 per 1,000.
In London, Kingston upon Thames has seen the biggest increase in vehicle offences year-on-year (+17.28), with Waltham Forest showing the biggest decrease (-31.11%).
In the Home Counties, the areas with the biggest drops in vehicle offences are Sussex (–24.60%), followed by Kent (–18.69%) and Essex (–16.91%).
In Thames Valley, Berkshire East experienced a +7.4% surge in vehicle offences year-on-year. This stands in stark contrast to the other four Thames Valley areas where vehicle offences have plummeted, led by Oxfordshire (-20.6%), Buckinghamshire (-12.7%), Milton Keynes (-10.2%), and Berkshire West (-8.9%).
Kent ranks second worst for criminal damage and arson (8.95 vs 11.51 per 1,000)
Criminal damage and arson is one of the only two categories where the Home Counties average exceed London, with a crime rate of 6.24 vs 6.16 per 1,000.
Westminster (11.51), Kent (8.95) and Camden (8.20) take the lead as the three worst areas for criminal damage and arson across both London and the Home Counties.
What these findings show is that higher rates of criminal damage and arson are shared amongst both London and the Home Counties. Multiple Home Counties exceed London’s average of 6.16 per 1,000 (Kent, Sussex and Essex), with Kent ranking as the second highest area, behind only Westminster.
The areas with the biggest increase in this category are Richmond upon Thames (London, +14.88%) and Hertfordshire (Home Counties, +0.63%). The areas with the biggest drops are Hillingdon (London, –17.80%) and Sussex (Home Counties, –8.36%).
Hampshire and Sussex both exceed London’s public order offence average
The London boroughs with the highest public order offence average (per 1,000) are Westminster (16.84), Camden (11.26) and Islington (9.53). In the Home Counties, Hampshire ranks with the highest average (7.07), followed by Sussex (7.05) and Surrey (6.54).
Public order offences follow a similar pattern as criminal damage, with coastal and commuter counties indicating higher relative public order risks than London’s overall average of 6.41 per 1,000.
The areas with the biggest increase in public order offences are Sutton (London, +9.73%) and Hertfordshire (Home Counties, +3.34%). The areas with the biggest decreases are Kent (Home Counties, –11.03% — the most improved area in this category – and Haringey (London, –5.56%).
In Thames Valley, public order offences rise in 4 of the 5 Thames Valley local regions, while Buckinghamshire makes 5.20% reduction.
Sussex ranks second only to Westminster for weapons possession – nearly double the London average
The Home Counties also exceed London’s average crime rate for weapons possession offences, with the Home Counties holding an average of 0.89 per 1,000 vs London’s 0.79.
The areas across London and the Home Counties with the worst overall average are Westminster (1.85) followed by Sussex (1.41) and then Lewisham (1.19). Within the Home Counties, Sussex holds the highest average, followed by Hampshire (1.06) and Kent (0.99).
Of all the 40 areas analysed, Sussex has the second highest rate for weapons possession offences – beaten only by Westminster – which equates to nearly double the London average.
Overall, five Home Counties exceed London’s average of 0.79 per 1,000 for weapons possession:
- Sussex (1.41)
- Hampshire (1.06)
- Kent (0.99)
- Essex (0.91)
- Bedfordshire (0.84)
When it comes to areas with the biggest increases in weapons possession offences, we’ve seen the sharpest rise in Kingston upon Thames (London) with an increase of 57.14%, This is the sharpest single rise across all 40 areas.
Other notable increases in weapons offences in London include:
- Barking and Dagenham (+55.08%)
- Haringey (+52.11%)
- Lewisham (+47.74%)
Whereas in the Home Counties:
- Bedfordshire (+20.00%)
- Hertfordshire (+15.72%)
- Surrey (+13.36%)
- Essex (+12.59%)
The areas with the biggest drops in weapons offences are Greenwich (London, –4.90%) and Thames Valley (Home County, -10.20%). Thames Valley is the only area with double digit improvement in this category.
London boroughs claim all top 10 spots in the residential crime risk index
Home Counties vs London
Of all the 40 areas analysed, the following 10 London boroughs take the top spots (highest crime rates) in the residential crime index:
- Westminster – 100
- Camden – 75.53
- Kensington and Chelsea – 74.68
- Islington – 70.73
- Hackney – 70.57
- Southwark – 69.19
- Lewisham – 64.15
- Tower Hamlets – 64.15
- Lambeth – 63.27
- Haringey – 62.81
The top three Home Counties in the residential crime index are:
- Sussex – 59.06
- Hampshire – 48.15
- Kent – 41.77
Even the highest scoring Home County, Sussex, scores well under Westminster’s maximum 100. This reinforced the overall gap in crime rates between London and the Home Counties, despite the category-level exceptions above.
A complex issue: London’s volume vs the Home Counties’ blind spots
London carries the highest overall crime burden and dominates the Residential Crime risk index, with every top-10 spot taken by a London Borough – led by Westminster’s maximum score.
But that’s not to say that the Home Counties are automatically safer. Kent (criminal damage & arson) and Sussex (weapons possession) both rank second nationally in their respective categories, ahead of every London borough (excluding Westminster).
Overall, weapons possession is the category to watch. This is the category where the Home Counties average already exceeds London’s and the category which sees the sharpest rises across the whole dataset. This could be indicative of ‘city’ crime migrating to the suburbs.
Despite this, the overall trend is one of improvement. Most areas and most categories are moving in the right direction year-on-year, set against a small number of sharp, isolated increases. The story is far more nuanced than a simple ‘crime is rising/falling’ headline.
Conclusion
No area is completely immune from crime, even those with comparatively low overall crime rates. But there are key steps you can take to protect yourself and your property from residential crime.
Keep your home secure by locking your doors and windows and by using quality locks and alarm systems where appropriate. You should also remove all valuables from vehicles and park in well-lit, secure locations where possible.
If you witness any suspicious activity, you should report this promptly to the police to help tackle repeat offending and be sure to stay informed about local crime trends through neighbourhood policing updates.
NB: This Residential Crime Risk Index is intended to help residents better understand crime patterns and to take proactive steps to reduce their risk.
Methodology
- Data sources:
- https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/bulletins/crimeinenglandandwales/yearendingmarch2026
- https://www.thamesvalley.police.uk/police-forces/thames-valley-police/areas/sd/stats-and-data/crime-statistics/
- https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/datasets/crimeseverityscoreexperimentalstatistics
- https://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/mps-recorded-crime-geographic-breakdown-exy3m
- Crime rates presented per 1,000 residents/YoY % change across 5 offence categories: Burglary, Vehicle Offences, Criminal Damage & Arson, Public Order Offences, Possession of Weapons Offences.
- Coverage: London’s boroughs and the surrounding Home Counties’ police force areas — 40 areas in total.
- Period: year ending March 2026.
Methodology: Residential Crime Risk Index
Our index identifies the areas most at risk of crime by analysing local data across London and the Home Counties, prioritising community harm over raw volume.
- Standardised Rates: Crime counts across five key categories were converted to a rate of crimes per 1,000 residents to ensure a fair comparison between areas of vastly different sizes and populations.
- Severity Weighting: To reflect the true impact on communities rather than just the volume of incidents, we weighted the categories using median ONS Crime Severity Score guidelines. The weights applied were: Possession of Weapons (41.02%), Burglary (36.74%), Public Order (12.88%), Vehicle Offences (4.68%), and Arson & Criminal Damage (4.68%).
- Score Compression & Final Index (10–100): To prevent extreme statistical outliers (such as central London hotspots) from disproportionately skewing the scale, a logarithmic transformation was applied to the severity-weighted scores. This compressed the extreme gaps between regions, creating a more balanced and competitive comparison. Finally, the results were normalised into an intuitive 10–100 Crime Risk Index. A minimum baseline score of 10 was established (rather than 0) to accurately reflect that no community is completely free of crime risk, with 100 representing the highest relative risk.
- (Note: The City of London was excluded from the borough-level analysis due to its uniquely low residential population, which artificially skews per-capita crime rates).
